What Each Exit Signal Score Level Actually Means

The Exit Signal Score is a number between 0 and 100. Six AI models read the same daily briefing and each assign a score. The consensus is the average.

The number is useful. The number alone is not enough. A 52 does not tell you whether to move or whether to make dinner. What it tells you is which planning horizon to operate on.

We break the 0-100 range into seven levels. This post walks through all of them.

0 — Completely Safe

"Institutions functioning. No threats to stability."

This is the baseline. The score almost never sits here. It implies perfect institutional health, no meaningful political stress, no external shocks. It is the asymptote, not the default.

What to do: Live your life. Have a baseline go-bag because everyone should have one, but otherwise, the country is fine.

1–20 — Normal Concern

"Routine political stress. Democracy functioning normally."

This is the functioning-but-imperfect range. Partisan fights, political theater, ordinary policy conflict. The country is doing what democracies do. There is always something to be worried about, but none of it is existential.

What to do: Keep your documents current. Passport, up-to-date emergency fund, a rough sense of one country you would consider. Nothing more.

21–40 — Heed Caution

"Warning signs emerging. Stay informed."

The signal starts to shift. There is a pattern to the stress, not just isolated incidents. Maybe a cluster of civil liberties concerns, maybe economic instability, maybe a slow drift of institutional norms. Not panic-worthy. Not ignorable.

What to do: Fill out Layer 1 and Layer 2 of a contingency plan. Documents. Finance. A rough destination shortlist. You do not need to move anything real. You just need to make sure that if you needed to act in three months, you would not be starting from zero.

41–60 — Prepare Exit

"Conditions deteriorating. Make your exit plan."

This is the middle band and, historically, where things sit when the news feels heavy. The models are saying: the trajectory matters. Several indicators are moving the wrong way at the same time.

What to do: Build the full plan. Top two destination countries on your list, not five. Open at least one international financial account if you have not already. Set up an international mail or address service. Get any professional credentials apostilled. Have a conversation with the people you would move with about what would trigger a decision.

This is the level where the difference between "worried" and "prepared" becomes visible. Worried people read the news. Prepared people add two forms to their to-do list.

61–80 — Leave Now

"Conditions demand departure. Execute your plan."

The consensus is that the US is in a materially deteriorated state. Historical parallels would be countries in the months before a breakdown of civil institutions, not decades before.

What to do: If your plan is not already built, build it this week. If it is built, activate Layer 4. Know your triggers. Buy refundable tickets to your top destination. Move a significant portion of your liquid assets outside US banks. Start the visa paperwork if you have not.

A 70 does not mean go tomorrow. It means the plan you built at 45 should now be running, and your timeline for executing it has compressed from months to weeks.

81–99 — Last Chance

"Exit window closing. Final opportunity to leave."

The signal is at the highest operational level. Exit infrastructure — functioning airports, accessible banks, honored visas, working government services — is beginning to degrade. Historical analogs are the weeks before a currency collapse, an institutional coup, or border closure.

What to do: If leaving is on the table for you at all, go. Bring the go-bag, execute the banking move, activate the destination country plan. A 90 is not a number to watch. It is a number to act on.

100 — Game Over

"Exit window closed. Departure no longer feasible."

This level exists on the scale for mathematical completeness, not as a planning target. Historically, most people who wanted to leave a country at 100 were unable to. Borders close. Passports are seized. Flights stop. Money stops moving.

What to do: The plan you should have executed at 80. The level exists as a reminder that waiting for certainty is itself a decision, and that by the time the score gets here, you are no longer choosing your response; you are living with it.

How to read the score over time

A single day's score is less informative than the trend. A 55 on a Tuesday tells you the situation is elevated. A 55 that was 45 two weeks ago and 35 a month before that tells you a lot more.

We show consensus score, six individual model scores, and the prior score on the WHEN TO LEAVE page. The prior score is the critical one. The direction matters more than the level.

How not to read the score

Not as a prediction. The score describes today, not next month.

Not as a signal to overreact. The gap between "warning signs emerging" and "conditions demand departure" is a 40-point spread for a reason. Most months, you are in the middle band, and the middle band is exactly where a prepared plan shines. You do nothing dramatic. You check. You continue.

Not as a replacement for your own judgment. Our models score global indicators based on a single daily briefing. You see your city, your job, your family. If those are telling you something different than the score, trust them. We built the tool. We did not build a replacement for the life you are actually living.