At a glance
GDP growth fell short of expectations while core inflation stayed stuck at 3.3%. Treasury yields soared to their highest level since 2007 even as the Fed kept rates unchanged.
GDP growth came in at 1.5%, below expectations, while core inflation stayed stubborn at 3.3%. Meanwhile, Treasury yields climbed to their highest level since 2007, even though the Federal Reserve held rates steady. The combination is unusual: the economy is cooling but borrowing costs keep rising, which normally happens when investors lose confidence in future growth.
This matters because it creates a squeeze. Businesses and households pay more to borrow while the economy slows, which typically kills growth further. The Fed kept rates unchanged, suggesting they're uncertain whether to cut or hold — a position they can't maintain forever. If growth keeps sliding while yields stay elevated, the fed will face pressure to cut rates to ease the squeeze. If inflation proves sticky, they can't. Either way, we're in a window where both happen at once, which isn't sustainable.
Citation trail
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